January 10, 2005 | Grim Assessment for the New Year

Kroll, a risk consulting company, publishes the Middle East Risk Monitor every Thursday. It is usually an honest and balanced assessment, since Kroll's customers rely on it to keep their employees safe.

Here's a snippet from their take (.pdf) on the New Year in Iraq and the war's effect on Al Qaida. Worth clicking through to the pdf.

Iraq: Violence to continue

The political and security situation can be expected to continue to deteriorate through 2005 and beyond, in spite of the successful dismantling of the former Baath regime and the January 30 elections.

This year is a crucial one for the transition to democracy in Iraq. Since last June a semi-sovereign government has held office, [...]

To date, however, the transition process has proved a security nightmare for the coalition forces and the Iraqi interim government, and the situation remains far from stable. A particular cause of tension is concern that this month’s elections, by giving new power to the Shiite majority, could ignite conflict with the Sunni minority. Shiite areas have seen some outbursts of violence in the past year but most of the unrest has been among Sunnis. Despite several American-led offensives against insurgents in the so-called Sunni triangle, these have not been pacified and there are grave doubts that valid elections can be held there.

Al Qaida, meanwhile, has steadily built up its operations in Iraq, opening up a new front for Muslim radicals seeking to fight the American presence in the region. A group headed by the Al Qaida leader Abu Musab Al Zarqawi has waged a relentless war against the American presence, successfully targeting foreigners in a spate of kidnappings and killings. Coalition troops continue to face daily attacks orchestrated by this group and by Iraqi insurgents sympathetic to its cause, and the pressure is expected to increase and persist until well beyond the January 30 vote.

Politically, the transition timetable set by the U.S. is likely to come under pressure because of the enduring violence, which has also hampered economic recovery. This uncertainty will continue to fuel popular frustration and may provoke further violence against the foreign military presence, as well as inter-religious and inter-ethnic tensions.

[...]

The Gulf: Further fallout from the Iraq invasion

The Gulf region will experience further instability this year arising from events in Iraq. The growth in anti-U.S. sentiment promises to have unpredictable consequences, most notably in Saudi Arabia.

The instability in Iraq has inevitably caused reverberations in the politics and stability of the Gulf.

The presence of 200,000 American troops in the region has fuelled anti-American sentiment and this in turn has bred popular discontent with Gulf governments. In addition there is an increasing threat from Al Qaida, which is believed to have moved some key operatives into the region, presumably in preparation for further actions in 2005. Saudi Arabia is the country most affected, with a strong growth of anti-U.S. and anti-government feeling.

The huge U.S. presence in the region has confirmed the widespread belief among Saudis that the United States is seeking control of oil resources across the Gulf region, while many Saudis also believe their own government co-operated with the U.S.-led war in Iraq, despite official denials. [...]

In spite of government plans for political reform and an intense security crackdown, it is unlikely that the Al Qaida threat can be eliminated in the near future. The threat may also spread to other countries, especially Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, provoking at the very least an increase in uncertainty.

Posted by Ryan Singel at January 10, 2005 10:44 AM

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.secondaryscreening.net/cgi-bin/mt-tb.cgi/84

Post a comment

Posted by: Naked at May 25, 2006 10:02 AM